Democratic Primary

Presidential Forecast

Senate Forecast

This project is keeping track of the polls of Democrats versus Trump. I use my polling data from fivethirtyeight.

How it works???

So after inputting all of the polls the the model creates an average vote share versus Trump. This is calculated by weighing the polls based on quality of pollster, sample size, and the state (if any) it  was taken in. It then regresses the margin against the state’s partisan lean to get regressed margin. It combines all the polling for that candidate to get its margin versus Trump. For states without polling it takes the margin versus Trump mixed with partisan lean to create a margin for that state. For states with polling it combines the polling average from that state with the partisan lean margin. For the variance I used a Standard Error of around 5-6% as polling in states is usually off around that margin.

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